Ethiopian Health Facilities Adopt Pharmaceuticals Demand Forecasting Platform

Backed by $435,000 in funding from the Gates Foundation, forlab+, a national forecasting platform designed to predict medicine and health resource needs, has been adopted by over 5,000 public health facilities in Ethiopia, with nearly 9,000 registered users in less than a year since its rollout.

Developed by Opian Information Communication Technology, a local tech firm, in partnership with the Ministry of Health and the Ethiopian Pharmaceutical Supply Service (EPSS), the project was initiated in November 2024 and launched in January 2025. 

“One reason forlab+ has been adopted so quickly is its alignment with Ethiopia’s Committed Demand and Supply System (CDSS), a government program that requires facilities to forecast needs and match them with available budgets,” said Zelalem Gizachew, co-founder of Opian and project manager at forlab+ in Ethiopia.

Public health facilities can integrate the forecasting model in two ways. Facilities with existing electronic medical record systems can log data directly into forlab+, provided the systems are standards-based. The platform combines consumption data with service data such as patient visits, treatments, and lab tests and analyzes historical patterns to forecast future demand. Facilities without electronic systems can manually upload monthly or yearly consumption and service records. In both cases, forlab+ applies time-series analysis to generate demand forecasts.

“Many facilities were already using tools like Excel for forecasting, which allowed for a smooth transition. Others are starting from scratch, but because the platform was designed around existing workflows and policy requirements, adoption has been much easier than expected,” Zelalem told Shega.

According to Zelalem, the system generates detailed forecasts for health facilities. For example, when a patient comes in for an antenatal visit, forlab+ tracks the standard treatment protocol from consultation with a doctor to lab tests to prescribed medicines and calculates the resources required. Scaled across many patients, this produces forecasts for medicine stocks, staffing, and overall service demand.

“It can also adapt to epidemics,” states Zelalem. Using a method called demographic mobility, the system incorporates transmission rates and population size in specific areas to estimate how demand could change under different scenarios.

In addition to forecasting, forlab+ provides dashboards and analytics, including an integrated AI chatbot to support users.

Solomon Nigussie, Deputy Director of the Ethiopian Pharmaceutical Supply Service, confirmed that forlab+ has already been adopted by more than 5,000 public health facilities in Ethiopia.

"With support from the Ministry of Health, the platform is transforming the country’s medicine procurement process," Solomon told Shega.

He added that the next phase will expand beyond hospitals and health centers, with plans to onboard Kenema Pharmacy and the Ethiopian Red Cross Society. The Red Cross has already registered 91 branches on the platform

Ethiopia has about 20,000 health facilities, including 404 hospitals, 3,907 health centers, and 15,531 health posts, which are small community-level facilities typically staffed by health extension workers serving rural and remote areas.

The Gates Foundation awarded Opain a grant in November 2024 to improve forecasting and supply planning for health commodities, ensuring consistent availability at public facilities so patients can receive uninterrupted care and treatment.

“Policymakers can use the system to identify resource gaps and anticipate potential shortages, informing more strategic budgeting. While the system is not perfect, knowing finance gaps through forlab+ is helpful in deciding where to allocate resources,” notes Zelalem.

The adoption of forlab+ comes against the backdrop of high out-of-pocket spending in Ethiopia’s health sector. Despite community-based health insurance, a study published in the Equity & Health Journal found that 34% of healthcare spending is still financed directly by households, one of the highest rates globally. By reducing the risk of medicine shortages, forlab+ aims to narrow this gap and strengthen the country’s health financing system.