Ethiopia’s banking sector is coming full circle. From foreign-led origins to decades of closure, the 2025 reforms mark a pivotal reopening. What does this mean for competition, capital, and financial inclusion?
Ethiopia banned petrol car imports in 2024. EVs are now 60%+ of new registrations.
But only 22% of households have a metered grid connection, and just 27% will by 2030.
The most interesting thing about Ethiopia's credit cap isn't that it's gone. It's that it was measured against total loans. The dominant state bank had the most room to lend underneath it.
CBE reports processing 22.24 trillion Br in digital transactions and holding a 70% market share. Combined with Telebirr, two state-linked entities could now account for close to 80% of transaction value.
Ethiopia's Eurobond restructuring agreement in principle closes one chapter of a five-year debt saga. The structural questions it leaves open are more consequential than the headline haircut suggests.
A strong fertilizer procurement season masks a deeper issue: Ethiopia’s challenge isn’t sourcing inputs, it’s getting them to farmers on time, in the right place, and at scale.
Ethiopians are pressing their own noug oil again, powered by cheap machines and a booming TikTok trade. Regulatory standards could shut them down again.
