Africa’s Intracontinental Trade Underwhelms Amid AfCFTA Pursuit

Nearly seven years after the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement was adopted, intracontinental trade in the continent remains sluggish, at around 14.6%. Progress in the free movement of people protocol, which looks to reduce mobility between African countries, is also dragging, with just four countries having ratified it.

Representatives and experts from several African countries gathered in Addis Ababa last week for the Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development to advance agreements for the establishment of AfCFTA.

Antonio Pedro, Deputy Executive Secretary at the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), underscored the importance of leveraging the AfCFTA to minimize the fallout from the increasingly undermined multilateral global trading system. He questioned the feasibility of importing fertilizer and petroleum products when locally manufactured alternatives are available.

“Are there self-imposed barriers?” Antonio enquired.

The Deputy referred to trade relations between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Cameroon, highlighting how the two countries were more trade-distant to one another than they were to China or the United States of America.

While the AfCFTA would cap continental efforts stretching back nearly six decades, it faces considerable challenges in a rapidly multipolar global setting. A whopping 410 billion dollars would be required by the AfCTA just to meet demands in transport infrastructure, according to a study conducted in 2022. In an ideal scenario, the AfCTA could grow into one of the most powerful free trade areas, encompassing 54 countries and over 1.2 billion people.

Semereta Sewasew, Ethiopia’s State Minister for Finance, echoed sentiments pushing for the accelerated implementation of the AfCFTA agreement. She acknowledged the presence of infrastructure gaps, fragmented policies, financing constraints, and disparities in capacity across member states, which required expert insights.

“Your ability to propose strategic, actionable recommendations will ensure that the AfCFTA becomes a tool of tangible progress rather than mere aspiration,” Semereta said, referencing the committee of experts.

However, a slew of emerging economic and political challenges could threaten the implementation of the AfCFTA in the near term. Debt, partly a legacy of a global financial architecture increasingly being critiqued by African economists, remains a critical handicap for several countries. Debt servicing costs have tripled since 2010 for African countries, with interest payments rising to 27% of government revenues across the continent. The debt burden has also coincided with a slowdown in the pace of the reduction of extreme poverty, with 38% of Africans living below the $2.15 daily wage threshold.

Success in the accelerated advancement of the AfCFTA agreement will require collaboration to address security challenges and efforts to meet the macroeconomic convergence criteria as well as ratification and implementation of the several AfCFTA protocols, according to expert recommendations.